As the marketing world grapples with AI, attribution challenges, and consumers in information overload, the old rules of measuring success are falling short. Focusing solely on clicks or traditional "willingness to pay" metrics misses the crucial precursors to action. Instead, understanding a consumer's "willingness to participate" and leveraging brand trust is becoming the true differentiator.

Thomas J. Thompson, Chief Economist at Havas Edge, integrates behavioral economics and AI to help clients navigate this shifting landscape. His work involves empowering account teams with future-focused insights and analyzing the unpredictable factors that change consumer behavior. He argues for a fundamental shift in how marketers measure attention and value.

Action over attribution: "I believe, as an economist, that current attribution models are too fragmented or overused," Thompson states. "And I think the best way to measure attention is: what level of attention prompted you to take an action." This moves beyond simply tracking touchpoints to understanding the motivation driving conversion.

Participate, then purchase: Thompson contrasts the old model with his updated framework. "Traditionally, economists focused on a concept called willingness to pay. And the idea was that people are rational," he explains. But modern consumers face a hurdle before price: "willingness to participate." Using a vacation analogy, he notes that before considering cost, someone must first decide if they can or want to take a trip based on job security or time off. No price, however low, matters if participation is off the table. Only then does "willingness to purchase" – influenced by budget and perceived value – come into play, replacing the simpler "willingness to pay."

Brands doing it right: This framework changes how brands should approach consumers. "What's really fascinating is this is where brands that are doing it right are starting to tell this integrated message across all media and all touch points without worrying about where they are," Thompson observes. Successful brands first generate desire ("willingness to participate") with evocative content, like travel imagery, rather than leading with price. Only after capturing interest do they introduce offers to move consumers toward purchase.

"Based on what I’ve seen in the market, there's probably about 30% of the brands that I think have adopted this," he estimates. "If I drive willingness to participate and willingness to purchase, then I have a very logical model." Focusing too heavily on attributing individual touchpoints, he warns, means "you're moving all these levers and you're not adapting to how consumers now process information."