An ensemble approach to Incrementality Testing

An ensemble approach to Incrementality Testing

No more inconclusive tests. No more cookie-cutter playbooks. No more tests run in isolation.

No more inconclusive tests.
No more cookie-cutter approach.
No more isolated tactics.

No more inconclusive tests. No more cookie-cutter playbooks. No more tests run in isolation.

At Paramark, your incrementality tests are guided by your Marketing Mix Model from the start: it flags the channels it's least certain about, so you test what matters instead of guessing. We design geo- and audience-based holdouts, built on multiple synthetic controls, for a clear go/no-go result. Every result feeds back into the model, so your decisions compound.

At Paramark, your incrementality tests are guided by your Marketing Mix Model from the start: it flags the channels it's least certain about, so you test what matters instead of guessing. We design geo- and audience-based holdouts, built on multiple synthetic controls, for a clear go/no-go result. Every result feeds back into the model, so your decisions compound.

Multiple synthetic controls

We mix in MMM
from the start.

To measure lift, you have to build the counterfactual — what would have happened without the campaign. Most methods build one and bet on it. We build many synthetic controls and read where they agree: an honest range, not a single number pretending to be exact.

We don’t do black box. Your monthly MMM report evaluates impressions, reach, and costs across all marketing channels and campaigns: paid, owned, earned, brand, performance, online and offline.

How it works

First, the platform matches your markets. We find pairs of markets that move alike — same demand, same seasonality — so one can stand in for the other.

Keep what holds up. We use only the markets where we can build a trustworthy synthetic control of what would have happened anyway.

Finally, we size it before you spend. A power analysis sets the smallest lift the test can detect, the timeline, and the budget — so it's built to conclude, not to hope

It’s time to ask the right questions

It’s time to ask
the right questions.

When MMM is used before designing Incrementality Tests,

it helps answer your most crucial questions.

Don’t be chained down by last-touch attribution. This is the next generation of marketing measurement.

What should we test?

MMM separates signal from noise to avoid wasted tests. Channels that have limited historical data are great candidates for testing.

What’s the right hypothesis?

See where change historically correlates with outcomes. Understand credibility intervals to define testing roadmaps.

How do tests fit into the bigger budget picture?

Contextualize lift relative to spend, seasonality, 

and cross-channel effects.

A custom approach for your brand, location & goals

A custom approach for your brand,
location & goals.

If you’ve ever had someone suggest the same tests for the US and Asia, you’ve gotten bad advice.

Incrementality has to be bespoke or it doesn’t work.
The tests have to be crafted based on your company, region, and the business goals you need to reach:

Adjusting spend levels on a channel or campaign

Exploring investment in an entirely new channel

Experimenting with a new campaign (creative, audience)

Assessing a new bidding strategy (CPMs, CPCs)

Testing a new price or offer

Incrementality in the real world

Incrementality
in the real world

MMM-informed incrementality testing has been 

a huge factor in our customers’ success. 

Incrementality informed a smarter budget for Healf

Healf is a high-growth UK health & wellness e-commerce retailer (£40M annual revenue)

The issue

Healf was allocating ~90% of its media budget to Google but lacked clarity on what was truly incremental versus demand capture.

What we did

Paramark designed a UK-specific geo holdout test to isolate lift and segment performance by new vs. existing customers.

Results

→ New customer spend was 3x more incremental than existing customer spend

→ Validated that Google was driving true growth, not just harvesting demand

→ Identified Search more incremental than PMax, informing budget reallocation

Steno unlocked confident expansion into offline channels 

Steno Modern legal court reporting company with an offline, sales-led growth model

The issue

Steno invested heavily in events and out-of-home marketing 
but had no reliable way to prove incremental impact.

What we did

Paramark designed geo-based lift tests to measure whether campaigns 
drove real business outcomes — not just impressions.

Results

→ NYC event campaign generated 300+ incremental jobs

→ Performance exceeded hypothesis by ~3x

→ Based on lift results, Steno doubled OOH investment

Incrementality is an ongoing growth engine at Eucalyptus

Eucalyptus is a global DTC telehealth platform operating across AU, UK, Germany, and Japan

The issue

Eucalyptus needed to scale customer acquisition internationally without increasing CAC

What we did

Paramark built a structured incrementality roadmap across brands 
and markets, designing country-specific geo tests and integrating results with MMM.

Results

→ Doubled new customer acquisition while maintaining CAC

→ Identified >10% incremental lift on TikTok

→ Validated incremental impact of TV and radio before scaling

→ Saved millions by cutting underperforming hypotheses early

Incrementality informed a smarter budget for Healf

Healf is a high-growth UK health & wellness e-commerce retailer (£40M annual revenue)

The issue

Healf was allocating ~90% of its media budget to Google but lacked clarity on what was truly incremental versus demand capture.

What we did

Paramark designed a UK-specific geo holdout test to isolate lift and segment performance by new vs. existing customers.

Results

→ New customer spend was 3x more incremental than existing customer spend

→ Validated that Google was driving true growth, not just harvesting demand

→ Identified Search more incremental than PMax, informing budget reallocation

Steno unlocked confident expansion into offline channels 

Steno Modern legal court reporting company with an offline, sales-led growth model

The issue

Steno invested heavily in events and out-of-home marketing 
but had no reliable way to prove incremental impact.

What we did

Paramark designed geo-based lift tests to measure whether campaigns 
drove real business outcomes — not just impressions.

Results

→ NYC event campaign generated 300+ incremental jobs

→ Performance exceeded hypothesis by ~3x

→ Based on lift results, Steno doubled OOH investment

Incrementality is an ongoing growth engine at Eucalyptus

Eucalyptus is a global DTC telehealth platform operating across AU, UK, Germany, and Japan

The issue

Eucalyptus needed to scale customer acquisition internationally without increasing CAC

What we did

Paramark built a structured incrementality roadmap across brands 
and markets, designing country-specific geo tests and integrating results with MMM.

Results

→ Doubled new customer acquisition while maintaining CAC

→ Identified >10% incremental lift on TikTok

→ Validated incremental impact of TV and radio before scaling

→ Saved millions by cutting underperforming hypotheses early

FAQ

What does Paramark actually do?

What does Paramark actually do?

How is Paramark different from traditional multi-touch attribution (MTA) tools?

How is Paramark different from traditional multi-touch attribution (MTA) tools?

Who is Paramark built for?

Who is Paramark built for?

What is incrementality testing and how does Paramark do it?

What is incrementality testing and how does Paramark do it?

What is Marketing Mix Modeling?

What is Marketing Mix Modeling?

See what's hiding in your data.